Further Topics in Probability, Spring 2019


 
Joseph Najnudel; Márton Balázs
Email:joseph.najnudel@our_city.ac.countrycode; m.balazs@our_city.ac.countrycode
Offices:4.09 Howard House; 3.7 Main Bld
Drop in Sessions: Wednesdays 11:30 - 12:30, 4.09 Howard House (Weeks 13-18); 3.7 Maths (Weeks 19-24)
Q&A Session: Tuesday 28th May, 9:00am, SM3. Please prepare with questions.

 
 
  • The unit description for level H/6, including assessment methods, texts, syllabus.
     
  • The unit description for level M/7, including assessment methods, texts, syllabus.
     
  • Calculators are not allowed in the examination.
     
  • Remark on the assessments: there will be no distinction between levels H/6 and M/7 regarding homeworks. Six homework sets will be assigned, see the schedule below. Our marking deadline is the class one week after the respective due dates. From each of these, you can collect 17 homework marks. Your final mark will be weighted as 20% -- 80% homework mark -- exam mark.
     
  • A few more remarks on the exam: for both levels, final examination will be 2½-hour long, will consist of four questions each of which will be used for assessment. The difference between levels H/6 and M/7 will only be the required depth of reproducing proofs in the exam. On H/6 I can ask for at most a couple of words about how a proof goes. On M/7, I can ask for proofs in details.
     
  • The standard normal distribution in pdf. You will be given a similar table on the exam.
     
  • Revision notes (greener version, half the paper) in pdf, written by Aaron Smith, a student in this unit in 2015. Please notice that these notes are by no means meant to fully cover our material, nor will all parts of them be assessed. (Last edited: 25/05/2018.)
     
  • Extended slides/notes of elementary probability. Some of it can be used as reference and refreshment for parts of the Probability 1 and Advanced Probability 2 units. Other portions we will cover in class, and some we will not touch. Below you'll see links to relevant parts of this material. Please notice that these links are by no means meant to fully cover our material, nor will all parts of all of them be assessed. They rather serve as background reading. (They are actually part of lecture notes for a rather strong first probability unit I used to teach before.)

Below is a detailed schedule. Topics of future events are plans, and can change. Topics of past events serve as log.
Homeworks are/will also be posted here: just click those with a link below. The green version uses less paper to print. They are due at 12:00pm in the blue locker with "Further Topics in Probability" on it on the ground floor of the Main Maths Building.
Homework solutions will appear on Blackboard, please email us if you have problem accessing these.

I was thinking about going over the ingenious proof of the SLLN by N. Etemadi, but decided to stay with the classical way instead. You are welcome to check out his way of doing it!

Came across this illustration of Jensen's inequality: square-root of the average ≠ average of the square-root.


 
Day Topics Homework due:
Mon 28 Jan Review of the unit, basic discrete distributions --
Tue 29 Jan Basic discrete distributions; convolution (discrete cases) --
Thu 31 Jan Ex. class (Neg.Bin convolution, continuous r.v., Normal distribution) --
Mon 4 Feb Convolution (Gaussian) --
Tue 5 Feb Convolution (Cauchy) --
Thu 7 Feb Convolution (Cauchy) HW1 HW1 (sol. on Bb.)
Mon 11 Feb Gamma, Chi square distributions --
Tue 12 Feb Poisson process. Generating functions (properties) --
Thu 14 Feb Ex. class (convolutions) --
Mon 18 Feb Generating functions (random no. of summands) --
Tue 19 Feb Generating functions (Galton-Watson process) --
Thu 21 Feb Generating functions (Critical G-W process; random walk) HW2 HW2 (sol. on Bb.)
Mon 25 Feb Generating functions (random walk: level 1 hitting time) --
Tue 26 Feb Generating functions (weak convergence) --
Thu 28 Feb Ex. class (fun with generating functions) --
Mon 4 Mar Weak convergence examples, Weak Law of Large Numbers --
Tue 5 Mar Weak Law of Large Numbers, Stirling's formula --
Thu 7 Mar Stirling's formula, DeMoivre Laplace CLT HW3 HW3 (sol. on Bb.)
Mon 11 Mar DeMoivre Laplace CLT, Measure Theory (basic notions, probability) --
Tue 12 Mar Measure Theory --
Thu 14 Mar Ex. class (Generating functions: RW probabilities) --
Mon 18 Mar Measure Theory --
Tue 19 Mar Probabilistic tools --
Thu 21 Mar Probabilistic inequalities HW4 HW4 (sol. on Bb.)
Mon 25 Mar Probabilistic inequalities; Convergences --
Tue 26 Mar Convergences; Strong Law of Large Numbers (Kolmogorov's ineq.) --
Thu 28 Mar Ex. class (convergence modes) --
Mon 1 Apr Kolmogorov-Khinchin; Toeplitz' lemma --
Tue 2 Apr Kronecker; Kolmogorov's Thm, SLLN --
Thu 4 Apr Characteristic Functions HW5 HW5 (sol. on Bb.)
Easter vacation
Mon 29 Apr Inversion formula --
Tue 30 Apr Inversion formula --
Thu 2 May Ex. class (Characteristic functions) --
Tue 7 May
Weak Convergence (Prokhorov's Thm) --
Tue 7 May Weak Convergence (Continuity Lemma) --
Thu 9 May WLLN, CLT, comments HW6 HW6 (sol. on Bb.)

 
 

 

If you have any questions, please contact us (see on top). Click here to see Márton's schedule.


 

To Márton's teaching page