Further Topics in Probability, Autumn 2013


 
Márton Balázs
Email:m.balazs@our_city.ac.countrycode
Tel:+44 (0)117 928-7991
Office:Maths 3.7
Office hours: Mondays 10:00 - 10:45am in teaching weeks, Maths 3.7
except for the 28th of October, which is cancelled.

 
 
  • The unit description for level H/6, including assessment methods, texts, syllabus.
     
  • The unit description for level M/7, including assessment methods, texts, syllabus.
     
  • Remark on the tutorials (see the schedule below): On Thursdays' tutorials we discuss (homework) problems, review stuff as necessary, look at more examples, but no new material is covered on these occasions. These tutorials are likely to help you, but they are not mandatory.
     
  • Remark on the assessments: There will be no distinction between levels H/6 and M/7 regarding homeworks. Six homework sets will be assigned, see the schedule below. From each of these, you can collect 17 homework marks. On the exam, you can collect 100 exam marks. Your final score will be computed using the formula [homework marks]*0.2 + [exam marks]*0.8. This score will be compared to the standard 0-100 scale. (Yes, you have a gift value of 0.4.)
     
  • A few more remarks on the exam: For both levels, final examination will be 2˝-hour long, will consist of five questions out of which the best four answers will be used for assessment. The difference between levels H/6 and M/7 will only be the required depth of reproducing proofs in the exam. On H/6 I can ask at for most a couple of words about how a proof goes. On M/7, I can ask for proofs in details.
     
  • The standard normal distribution in pdf. You will be given this table on the exam.

Below is a detailed schedule. Topics of future events are plans, and can change. Topics of past events serve as log.
Homeworks are/will also be posted here: just click those with a link below. They are due in class, or in the blue locker with my name on the ground floor of the Main Maths Building.
If everything works as intended (second try on 21 Oct, 12:15), homework solutions can be found in Blackboard under MATH30006_2013 or MATHM0018_2013. Please email me if you have problem accessing these.


 
Day Topics Homework due:
Mon 30 Sep, 11:00, Maths PC3 Review of the unit, basic discrete distributions --
Tue 1 Oct, 2:00, Phys 3.34 Convolution (discrete cases) --
Wed 2 Oct, 10:00, Phys 3.27 Convolution (Gaussian) --
Thu 3 Oct, 9:00, Maths PC4 Tutorial: Neg.Binom and Uniform convolution; Residue Thm. --
Mon 7 Oct, 11:00, Maths PC3 Convolution (Cauchy) --
Tue 8 Oct, 2:00, Phys 3.34 Convolution (Cauchy, Exponential) --
Wed 9 Oct, 10:00, Phys 3.27 Poisson process, Chi square; Generating functions (properties) HW1
Thu 10 Oct, 9:00, Maths PC4 Tutorial (Convolutions, generating functions) --
Mon 14 Oct, 11:00, Maths PC3 Generating functions (examples; of convolutions) --
Tue 15 Oct, 2:00, Phys 3.34 Generating functions (random no. of summands, Galton-Watson process) --
Wed 16 Oct, 10:00, Phys 3.27 Generating functions (Galton-Watson process) --
Thu 17 Oct, 9:00, Maths PC4 Tutorial (Generating functions) --
Mon 21 Oct, 11:00, Maths PC3 Generating functions (random walk: level 1 hitting time) --
Tue 22 Oct, 2:00, Phys 3.34 Generating functions (random walk) --
Tue 22 Oct, 3:00, SM2 Generating functions (Poisson approximation) --
Wed 23 Oct, 10:00, Phys 3.27 Renewal Theory (LLN) HW2
Thu 24 Oct, 9:00, Maths PC4 Tutorial (Generating functions) --
Fri 25 Oct, 11:00, Maths SM3 Renewal Theory (LLN, Delayed renewals) --
I am away the whole week
Mon 4 Nov, 11:00, Maths PC3 Renewal Theory (Stationary renewals, Blackwell's Thm) --
Tue 5 Nov, 2:00, Phys 3.34 Renewal Theory (Renewal equation) --
Tue 5 Nov, 3:00, SM2 Tutorial (Generating fcts, Moran's example) --
Wed 6 Nov, 10:00, Phys 3.27 Renewal Theory (Renewal Thm, examples) HW3
Thu 7 Nov, 9:00, Maths PC4 Tutorial (Age, renewal paradox, length biased sampling) --
Fri 8 Nov, 11:00, Maths PC4 Weak Law of Large Numbers, Stirling's formula --
Mon 11 Nov, 11:00, Maths PC3 Stirling's formula, DeMoivre Laplace CLT --
Tue 12 Nov, 2:00, Phys 3.34 DeMoivre Laplace CLT --
Wed 13 Nov, 10:00, Phys 3.27 Measure Theory (basic notions, probability) --
Thu 14 Nov, 9:00, Maths PC4 Tutorial (Renewal Thm) --
Mon 18 Nov, 11:00, Maths PC3 Measure Theory --
Tue 19 Nov, 2:00, Phys 3.34 Probabilistic tools --
Wed 20 Nov, 10:00, Phys 3.27 Probabilistic tools, notions of convergence HW4
Thu 21 Nov, 9:00, Maths PC4 Tutorial (DeMoivre Laplace Thm, types of convergences) --
Mon 25 Nov, 11:00, Maths PC3 Strong Law of Large Numbers (Kolmogorov's inequality) --
Tue 26 Nov, 2:00, Phys 3.34 Strong Law of Large Numbers (Kolmogorov-Khinchin, Toeplitz, Kronecker) --
Wed 27 Nov, 10:00, Phys 3.27 Strong Law of Large Numbers (Kolmogorov's Thm, SLLN) --
Fri 29 Nov, 9:00, Maths PC4 Tutorial (Types of convergences, LLN) --
Mon 2 Dec, 11:00, Maths PC3 SLLN, Characteristic Functions --
Tue 3 Dec, 2:00, Phys 3.34 Characteristic Functions --
Wed 4 Dec, 10:00, Phys 3.27 Characteristic Functions (Inversion formula) HW5
Thu 5 Dec, 9:00, Maths PC4 Tutorial (LLN, Characteristic functions) --
Mon 9 Dec, 11:00, Maths PC3 Weak Convergence (relative compactness, tightness) --
Tue 10 Dec, 2:00, Phys 3.34 Weak Convergence, CLT (Prokhorov's Thm) --
Wed 11 Dec, 10:00, Phys 3.27 Weak Convergence, CLT (Continuity Lemma) --
Thu 12 Dec, 9:00, Maths PC4 Tutorial (Characteristic functions) --
Mon 16 Dec, 11:00, Maths PC3 Weak Convergence, WLLN, CLT --
Tue 17 Dec, 2:00, Phys 3.34 Weak Convergence, CLT (Comments to the CLT) --
Wed 18 Dec, 10:00, Phys 3.27 Weak Convergence, CLT (Coupon collector, elements of Large Deviations) HW6
Thu 19 Dec, 9:00, Maths PC4 Tutorial (LLN, Characteristic functions, Lindeberg Thm) --

 
 

 

If you have any questions, please contact me (see on top). Below is my schedule.

 


 

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