Further Topics in Probability, Spring 2020


 
Márton Balázs
Email:m.balazs@our_city.ac.countrycode
Offices:1.44 Fry
Drop in Sessions: Wednesdays 11:30 - 12:30, 1.44 Fry
BlueJeans Sessions: Teaching weeks Wednesdays 10:00 -

 
 
  • The unit description for level H/6, including assessment methods, texts, syllabus.
     
  • The unit description for level M/7, including assessment methods, texts, syllabus.
     
  • Calculators are not allowed in the examination.
     
  • Remark on the assessments: there will be no distinction between levels H/6 and M/7 regarding homeworks. Six homework sets will be assigned, see the schedule below. Our marking deadline is the class one week two weeks after the respective due dates (to accommodate for the extended grace period). From each of these, you can collect 17 homework marks. Your final mark will be weighted as 20% -- 80% homework mark -- exam mark.
     
  • A few more remarks on the exam: for both levels, final examination will be 2½-hour long, will consist of four questions each of which will be used for assessment. The difference between levels H/6 and M/7 will only be the required depth of reproducing proofs in the exam. On H/6 I can ask for at most a couple of words about how a proof goes. On M/7, I can ask for proofs in details.
     
  • The standard normal distribution in pdf. You will be given a similar table on the exam.
     
  • Revision notes (greener version, half the paper) in pdf, written by Aaron Smith, a student in this unit in 2015. The notes on Stirling's formula (greener version) and a product-sum lemma are additional to this. Please notice that these notes are by no means meant to fully cover our material, nor will all parts of them be assessed. (Last edited: 23/01/2020.)
     
  • Extended slides/notes of elementary probability. Some of it can be used as reference and refreshment for parts of the Probability 1 and Advanced Probability 2 units. Other portions we will cover in class, and some we will not touch. Below you'll see links to relevant parts of this material. Please notice that these links are by no means meant to fully cover our material, nor will all parts of all of them be assessed. They rather serve as background reading. (They are actually part of lecture notes for a rather strong first probability unit I used to teach before.)

Below is a detailed schedule. Topics of future events are plans, and can change. Topics of past events serve as log.
Homeworks are/will also be posted here: just click those with a link below. The green version uses less paper to print. They are due at 12:00pm in the locker with "Further Topics in Probability" on it in G.90 Fry Building in Blackboard, click "Assessment, submission and feedback". A single pdf file (scanned or from LaTeX) is preferred, see instructions here or LaTeX resources on our Intranet → Software.
Homework solutions will appear on Blackboard, please email me if you have problem accessing these.

I was thinking about going over the ingenious proof of the SLLN by N. Etemadi, but decided to stay with the classical argument instead. You are welcome to check out his way of doing it!

I came across this illustration of Jensen's inequality: square-root of the average ≠ average of the square-root.


 
Original plan New setup: Topics Watch online: Homework due:
Tue 28 Jan Review of the unit, basic discrete distributions --
Wed 29 Jan Basic discrete distributions; convolution (discrete cases) --
Fri 31 Jan Ex. class (Neg.Bin, Binom., Poi. convolution, continuous r.v.) --
Tue 4 Feb Normal distribution, Convolution (Uniform, Gaussian) --
Wed 5 Feb Convolution (Gaussian, Cauchy) --
Thu 6 Feb -- HW1 HW1 (sol. on Bb.)
Fri 7 Feb Convolution (Cauchy) --
Tue 11 Feb Gamma, Chi square distributions --
Wed 12 Feb Generating functions (properties) --
Fri 14 Feb Ex. class (convolutions, Poisson process) --
Tue 18 Feb Generating functions (random no. of summands) --
Wed 19 Feb Generating functions (Galton-Watson process) --
Thu 20 Feb -- HW2 HW2 (sol. on Bb.)
Fri 21 Feb Generating functions (Critical G-W process; random walk) --
Tue 25 Feb Generating functions (random walk: level 1 hitting time) --
Wed 26 Feb Generating functions (weak convergence) --
Fri 28 Feb Ex. class (fun with generating functions) --
Tue 3 Mar Weak convergence examples, Weak Law of Large Numbers --
Wed 4 Mar Weak Law of Large Numbers, Stirling's formula --
Thu 5 Mar -- HW3 HW3 (sol. on Bb.)
Fri 6 Mar Stirling's formula, DeMoivre Laplace CLT --
Tue 10 Mar Stirling's formula, DeMoivre Laplace CLT --
Wed 11 Mar Measure Theory (basic notions, probability) --
Fri 13 Mar Ex. class (Generating functions: RW probabilities (sol. on Bb)) E1. on Bb. --
Tue 17 Mar Measure Theory --
Wed 18 Mar A product-sum lemma, probabilistic tools L1. L2. L3. L4. --
Thu 19 Mar Feel free to email this to me in pdf or picture format. HW4 HW4 (sol. on Bb.)
Easter vacation
(Fri 20 Mar) Do it by Tue 21 Apr Probabilistic tools and inequalities L5. L6. L7. L8. L9. --
Wed 22 Apr; 10:00 BlueJeans live meeting -- --
(Tue 24 Mar) Do it by Wed 22 Apr Modes of convergence, SLLN (Kolmogorov's ineq.) L10. L11. L12. L13. L14. --
(Fri 27 Mar) Do it by Fri 24 Apr Ex. class (convergence modes) E2. E3. E4. E5. --
(Wed 25 Mar) Do it by Tue 28 Apr SLLN (Kolmogorov-Khinchin; Toeplitz' lemma; Kronecker) L15. L16. L17. --
Wed 29 Apr; 10:00 BlueJeans live meeting -- --
(Tue 21 Apr) Do it by Wed 29 Apr SLLN (Kolmogorov's Thm, final proof, remarks) L18. L19. L20. L21. L22. --
(Thu 23 Apr) Thu 30 Apr; 12:00 -- -- HW5 (sol. on Bb.)
(Wed 22 Apr) Do it by Fri 1 May Characteristic Functions L23. L24. L25. L26. L27. --
(Fri 24 Apr) Do it by Tue 5 May Inversion formula, Weak convergence L28. L29. L30. --
Wed 6 May; 10:00 BlueJeans live meeting -- --
(Tue 28 Apr) Do it by Wed 6 May Weak Convergence (Prokhorov's Thm) L31. L32. --
(Fri 1 May) Do it by Fri 8 May Ex. class (Characteristic functions) (sol. on Bb) E6.,E7.,E8.,E9.,E10.,E11. on Bb. --
(Wed 29 Apr) Do it by Tue 12 May Continuity Lemma L33. L34. L35. L36. --
Wed 13 May; 10:00 BlueJeans live meeting -- --
(Tue 5 May) Do it by Wed 13 May WLLN, CLT L37. L38. L39. --
(Thu 7 May) Thu 14 May; 12:00 -- -- HW6 (sol. on Bb.)
(Wed 6 May) Do it by Fri 15 May Comments on the CLT (Berry-Esseen, Local CLT, Lindeberg Thm) L40. L41. L42. --

 
 

 

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