Further Topics in Probability, Spring 2021

MATH30006, MATHM0018


 
Márton Balázs
Email:m.balazs@our_city.ac.countrycode
Office:1.44 Fry (but I think you are not allowed up here...)
Math cafés: Tuesdays 5:00pm, Zoom (see link on Blackboard)
Drop in Sessions: Tuesdays 14:30 - 15:30, Zoom (see link on Blackboard)
Q&A Session: Thursday 3rd June, 2:00pm, Zoom. Please prepare with questions.

 
 
  • The intro video and its slides.
     
  • The unit description for level H/6, including assessment methods, texts, syllabus.
     
  • The unit description for level M/7, including assessment methods, texts, syllabus.
     
  • Remark on the assessments: there will be no distinction between levels H/6 and M/7 regarding homeworks. Six homework sets will be assigned, see the schedule below. Our marking deadline is one week after the respective due dates. From each of these, you can collect 17 homework marks. Your final mark will be weighted as 20% -- 80% homework mark -- exam mark.
     
  • A few more remarks on the exam: for both levels, final examination will be 2½-hour long, will consist of four questions each of which will be used for assessment. The exams at levels H/6 and M/7 will have cca. 80% overlap. Past exams, one with solutions, are to be found on the Blackboard page Resources for studentsExaminations.
     
  • The standard normal distribution in pdf. A similar table will be available on the exam.
     
  • Revision notes (greener version, half the paper) in pdf, written by Aaron Smith, a student in this unit in 2015. The notes on Stirling's formula (greener version) and a product-sum lemma are additional to this. Please notice that these notes are by no means meant to fully cover our material, nor will all parts of them be assessed. (Last edited: 23/01/2020.)
     
  • Extended slides/notes of elementary probability. Some of it can be used as reference and refreshment for parts of the Probability 1 and Advanced Probability 2 units. Other portions we will cover in class, and some we will not touch. Below you'll see links to relevant parts of this material. Please notice that these links are by no means meant to fully cover our material, nor will all parts of all of them be assessed. They rather serve as background reading. (They are actually part of lecture notes for a rather strong first probability unit I used to teach before.)
     
  • I was thinking about going over the ingenious proof of the SLLN by N. Etemadi, or this other one using ergodic ideas by C.W. Chin, but decided to stay with the classical argument instead. You are welcome to check out their ways of doing it!
     
  • I came across this illustration of Jensen's inequality: square-root of the average ≠ average of the square-root.

Below is a detailed schedule. Topics of future events are plans, and can change. Topics of past events serve as log. The green version of pdf's use less paper to print. Blended teaching will manifest in prerecorded videos and live teaching on Zoom.

Videos can be found under the links below, and I will also back them up on Blackboard. (At some point the numbering changes from Ln to Fn. This has no significance, it's just where we switch to last year's videos; at that time I had no idea that I'll still be recording this unit a year later.) The Zoom meeting links will be announced at least a few days in advance on Blackboard and by email. The recommended literature can be found under the unit description links above. These are advisory, examinable is what is featured in lectures.

Homeworks are/will also be posted here: just click those with a link below. They are due every second Thursday (see below) at 12:00pm in Blackboard. Homework solutions will appear on Blackboard, please email me if you have problem accessing these.


 
Time Where Topics Watch prerecorded: Homework due:
by Mon 1 Feb At home Intorduction and overview of the unit L0 --
by Thu 4 Feb At home Basic discrete distributions
Convolution (discrete cases)
Basic continuous distributions
L1, L2
L3, L4, L5, L6
L7
--
Fri 5 Feb, 10:00am Zoom Live ex. class (continuous convolution) --
by Thu 11 Feb At home Normal distribution
Convolution (Uniform, Gaussian)
Convolution (Cauchy)
L8
L9, L10
L11, L12, L13
by Thu 11 Feb, noon:
HW1 (sol. on Bb.)
Fri 12 Feb, 10:00am Zoom Live ex. class (Convolution comments and examples) --
by Thu 18 Feb At home Gamma, Chi square distributions
Poisson process
Generating functions (properties)
L14, L15, L16
L17
L18, L19, L20, L21, L22, L23
--
Fri 19 Feb, 10:00am Zoom Live ex. class (generating function examples) --
by Thu 25 Feb At home Generating functions (random no. of summands)
Generating functions (Galton-Watson process)
L24, L25
L26, L27, L28, L29, L30
by Thu 25 Feb, noon:
HW2 (sol. on Bb.)
Fri 26 Feb, 10:00am Zoom Live ex. class (Critical G-W process; random walk) --
by Thu 4 Mar At home Generating functions (random walk: level 1 hitting time)
Generating functions (weak convergence)
L31, L32, L33
L34, L35, L36
--
Fri 5 Mar, 10:00am Zoom Live ex. class (fun with generating functions) --
by Thu 11 Mar At home Weak convergence
Weak Law of Large Numbers
Stirling's formula
L37
L38, L39
L40, L41
by Thu 11 Mar, noon:
HW3 (sol. on Bb.)
Fri 12 Mar, 10:00am Zoom Live ex. class (Generating functions: RW probabilities (sol. on Bb)) (E1 on Bb.) --
by Thu 18 Mar At home DeMoivre Laplace CLT
Measure Theory (basic notions, probability) (videos borrowed from Martingales)
L42, L43, L44, L45, L46
M1, M2
--
Fri 19 Mar, 10:00am Zoom Live ex. class (DeMoivre Laplace CLT) --
by Thu 25 Mar At home Measure Theory (videos borrowed from Martingales)
A product-sum lemma, probabilistic tools
L47, M3, M4, M5, M6
F1, F2, F3, F4
by Thu 25 Mar, noon:
HW4 (sol. on Bb.)
Thu 26 Mar 10:00am Zoom Live ex. class (probabilistic tools) --
Easter vacation
by Thu 22 Apr At home Probabilistic tools and inequalities
Modes of convergence
SLLN (Kolmogorov's ineq.)
F5, F6, F7, F8, F9
F10, F11, F12
F13, F14
--
Fri 23 Apr, 10:00am Zoom Live ex. class (convergence modes) (E2, E3, E4, E5) --
by Thu 29 Apr At home SLLN (Kolmogorov-Khinchin; Toeplitz' lemma; Kronecker)
SLLN (Kolmogorov's Thm, final proof, remarks)
Characteristic Functions
F15, F16, F17
F18, F19, F20, F21, F22
F23, F24, F25, F26, F27
by Thu 29 Apr, noon:
HW5 (sol. on Bb.)
Fri 30 Apr, 10:00am Zoom Live ex. class (Characteristic functions (sol. on Bb)) (E6, E8 on Bb.) --
by Thu 6 May At home Inversion formula
Weak convergence
Weak Convergence (Prokhorov's Thm)
F28, F29
F30
F31, F32
--
Fri 7 May, 10:00am Zoom Live ex. class (Characteristic functions (sol. on Bb)) (E7, E9 on Bb.) --
by Thu 13 May At home Continuity Lemma
WLLN, CLT
F33, F34, F35, F36
F37, F38, F39
by Thu 13 May, noon:
HW6 (sol. on Bb.)
Fri 14 May, 10:00am Zoom Live ex. class (Comments on the CLT ) (E10, E11 on Bb.; F40, F41, F42) --

 
 

 

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