MATH10013: Probability and Statistics (first half)

This is the web page for first half of the Level 1 course 'Probability and Statistics' lectured by Professor Oliver Johnson of the School of Mathematics of Bristol University.
Lectures take place throughout teaching block 1.
Lectures via Blackboard
Optional drop-in sessions: Zoom, Wednesday 1-2 (check Blackboard for meeting ID) or send me an email at other times.
A more detailed description of the course including syllabus, suggested reading and unit aims.

Lecture notes and Problem Sheets

Lecture notes (printed copies available via tutors)
Problem sheets
This material is copyright of the University of Bristol unless explicitly stated otherwise. It is provided exclusively for educational purposes at the University and is to be downloaded or copied for your private study only.


A First Course in Probability by S. Ross.

Diversions and links from lectures

Section 1: Humans are not good at generating random numbers
Section 2 Diversion 1: Drake equation
Section 2 Diversion 2: Ramsey's theorem (see also Quanta magazine)
Section 3 Diversion 1: MIT Blackjack Team
Section 3 Diversion 2: (Conditional) Probability is likely to confuse people
Section 4 Diversion 1: German tank problem
Section 4 Diversion 2: Doomsday argument
Section 5 Diversion 1: Double your money?
Section 5 Diversion 2: 10 pin bowling
Section 6 Diversion: Beating roulette
Section 7 Diversion 1: Spurious correlations
Section 7 Diversion 2: Infinite Jest tennis match
Section 8 Diversion 1: Bertrand paradox
Section 8 Diversion 2: Benford's Law: Testing Benford's law
Section 9 Diversion 1: Alan Turing and probability
Section 9 Diversion 2: Larry Summers New York Times article (see point 6 in particular)
Section 10 Diversion 1: Metcheck snow probabilities, SPI-M-O consensus report on COVID modelling, Bank of England inflation predictions, climate change scenarios
Section 10 Diversion 2: Quincunx