MATH10013: Probability and Statistics (first half)

This is the web page for first half of the Level 1 course 'Probability and Statistics' lectured by Professor Oliver Johnson of the School of Mathematics of Bristol University.
Lectures take place throughout teaching block 1 apart from Reading Week (Week 6).
Lectures: 2pm Mondays, 9am Tuesdays Priory LT
Problem classes alternate weeks: 4pm Friday Priory LT
Optional drop-in sessions: 11am Tuesdays, G83 Fry Building or send me an email to try to fix a meeting at other times.
A more detailed description of the course including syllabus, suggested reading and unit aims.
There will be two assessed quizzes counting for 5% credit, deadlines midday Friday 21st October and 18th November

Lecture notes and Problem Sheets

Lecture notes (with Corrections)
Problem sheets
This material is copyright of the University of Bristol unless explicitly stated otherwise. It is provided exclusively for educational purposes at the University and is to be downloaded or copied for your private study only.


A First Course in Probability by S. Ross.

Diversions and links from lectures

Lecture 1: Humans are not good at generating random numbers
Lecture 2: Ramsey's theorem (see also Quanta magazine)
Lecture 3: MIT Blackjack Team
Lecture 4: Lateral flow test positivity - see also (Conditional) Probability is likely to confuse people
Lecture 5: German tank problem
Lecture 6: 10 pin bowling
Class 2: Beating roulette
Lecture 7: Fermi estimation
Lecture 8: Drake equation
Lecture 9: Double your money?
Lecture 10: Infinite Jest tennis match
Class 3: Fighting a truel
Lecture 11: US election special FiveThirtyEight
Lecture 12: Spurious correlations
Class 4: Benford's Law: Testing Benford's law
Lecture 13: Probabilistic method
Lecture 14: Risk win probabilities
Lecture 15: Alan Turing and probability
Lecture 16: Taskmaster donut game
Class 5: Larry Summers
Lecture 17: Random walks and electrical networks
Lecture 18: Metcheck snow probabilities, Bank of England inflation predictions, climate change scenarios
Lecture 19: Patronising advice on how to revise
Lecture 20: Quincunx