MATH10013: Probability and Statistics (first half)

This is the web page for first half of the Level 1 course 'Probability and Statistics' lectured by Professor Oliver Johnson of the School of Mathematics of Bristol University.
Lectures take place throughout teaching block 1 apart from Reading Week (Week 6).
Lectures: Monday 1pm Victoria Rooms, then either Tuesday 11am Priory Road LT or Wednesday 10am Priory Road 2D1 (check your timetable)
Problem classes: Friday 11am Priory Road LT
Optional drop-in sessions: 12pm Tuesdays G83 Fry Building or send me an email to try to fix a meeting at other times.
A more detailed description of the course including syllabus, suggested reading and unit aims.
There will be two assessed quizzes counting for 5% credit, deadlines midday on Thursday 19th October (Week 4) and 17th November (Week 8)

Lecture notes and Problem Sheets

Lecture notes
Problem sheets
Revision sessions: 2018 exam and 2018 exam solutions
This material is copyright of the University of Bristol unless explicitly stated otherwise. It is provided exclusively for educational purposes at the University and is to be downloaded or copied for your private study only.


A First Course in Probability by S. Ross (copies available in the Queens Building library)

Diversions and links from lectures

Lecture 1: Humans are not good at generating random numbers -- see guessing game
Lecture 2: Ramsey's theorem (see also Quanta magazine)
Class 1: Birthday problem
Lecture 3: MIT Blackjack Team
Lecture 4: Lateral flow test positivity - see also (Conditional) Probability is likely to confuse people
Lecture 5: German tank problem -- see also my Substack post
Lecture 6: 10 pin bowling
Class 2: Beating roulette
Lecture 7: Double your money?
Lecture 8: Monty Hall Problem
Lecture 9: Fermi estimation
Lecture 10: Drake equation
Class 3: Fighting a truel
Lecture 11: Benford's Law: Testing Benford's law
Lecture 12: Spurious correlations
Class 4: Infinite Jest tennis match
Lecture 13: Risk win probabilities
Lecture 14: Alan Turing and probability
Lecture 15: Taskmaster donut game
Lecture 16: Quincunx
Class 5: How to win the lottery by using maths
Lecture 17: Random walks and electrical networks
Lecture 18: Bertrand paradox
Lecture 19: questionnaires
Lecture 20: Metcheck snow probabilities, Bank of England inflation predictions, climate change scenarios
Class 6: Numbercrunch